In recent years, especially with the continuous introduction of new robots and AI technologies in 2025, we have seen some trends in the short term:
Mental work can be quickly replaced, such as programmers, UI designers, data analysts, clerical clerks, etc.
Manual labor cannot be replaced in a short time, such as couriers, transporters, barbers, chefs, maintenance workers, decorators, plumbers, etc.
We can also see some trends in layoffs on the enterprise side, such as Amazon’s layoffs and Microsoft’s layoffs.
However, Meituan Waimai has not significantly laid off its delivery workers because this sector cannot be quickly replaced by robots.
Although Meituan already has drones delivering food, such as in many parks in Shenzhen, China, such as Lotus Hill Park and Beacon Hill Park, drone delivery on weekends is completely non-stop. People continue to place orders, and drones continue to fly around. However, the versatility and market share of drones for food delivery are not yet comparable to those of humans, and the number of orders completed by drones cannot be compared with the number of orders completed by human delivery workers.
Only a small amount of physical work has been replaced by AI. For example, movie actors are doing movie shooting. Currently, AI can complete a large number of video productions. In the past, it required a lot of money to hire big-name stars, arrange scenes, and complete video production. Now, only a small amount of money is needed to write some text prompts to complete video production. The AI videos of station B have spread like wildfire.
Currently, clothing models, accessories models, movie actors, etc. are all being replaced by AI.
Drivers are gradually being replaced by AI and autonomous driving.
We are still in the early days before the outbreak of AI and robots. We have already seen the unlimited potential of AI, and it is difficult to predict what will happen in the future.
Subject to the difficulties of the physical world, it is difficult for robots and AI to complete these physical tasks:
Circuit installation, water pipe installation, etc. for home decoration.
It is difficult to complete the work of a chef, especially Chinese cuisine. The cuisine is complex, the tastes of each region are different, and the ingredients of the recipes are different. The robot will not be able to complete the preparation of various Chinese dishes in the short term.
Couriers carry goods, carry goods upstairs, and deliver goods to homes. In big cities in China, SF Express already has unmanned express vehicles, but they can only complete automated transportation on main routes. However, when entering communities and residential areas, manual delivery is still required.
Currently, robots are unable to complete physical work, but are limited by the development of technology, limitations of batteries, motors, movable joints, manufacturing costs, and limitations of sensors, such as touch, smell, taste, etc.
If these limitations are broken through in a short time, robots and AI may be able to complete manual labor.
In fact, it is obvious that it will be difficult for these things to break through within 4-5 years. The energy density of lithium iron phosphate, ternary lithium batteries, and solid-state batteries is not as good as gasoline and diesel. The load-bearing durability of motors and machinery is not good enough. The manufacturing cost is still high. The sense of smell and taste are even more difficult to achieve.
In the future era, learning an irreplaceable handicraft seems to be the key to winning in the competition between humans and robots and AI. Some irreplaceable handicrafts may be the way to make a living and make money.
However, in the future era, humans may not need to compete with robots and AI
You can imagine this future:
When you go out to take a taxi, you only need to summon a taxi on your mobile phone, and the self-driving taxi will come over and automatically navigate you to the designated destination.
People only needed to work 1-2 hours a day, or they didn't have to work, because at that time, materials were very abundant, and people had whatever they needed.